The Changing Landscape of the Internet

Facebook is the new Google. Google is the new Apple. Apple is the new Microsoft. Microsoft is the new… (gulp) ...AOL.  What in the wide wide world of sports is goin’ on here? Considering Apple is now the largest American tech company, does this mean Google will ultimately wind up on top?

The news is coming fast and furious these days.  Mobile platforms, hand-held devices, social networking, cloud computing, app development… all buzzwords in the industry, and all creating a great deal of headlines and even more excitement and debate among the tech community and end users.  Where is this all leading? And who will wind up on top? To answer that question, we’ve got to look back at the history of these companies, their current trajectories, and how they’ve evolved through the years.

The Invisible Hand At Work.

Over the years we’ve seen Microsoft become the most powerful tech company in the world, only to find themselves on the wrong side of the Internet. When desktop computing wasn’t connected to the web, Microsoft was king. At a time when their biggest competitor was a floundering Apple struggling to keep it’s share price above $10, and Netscape, which only had a browser and email client, it seemed nothing would bring down the empire Gates built. All of that changed when high-speed Internet access began replacing dial-up. This development, alongside the implementation of HTML4 and Javascript, allowed interactions once reserved for local intranets to be conducted remotely, securely, and easily.  It ultimately spelled Microsoft’s demise, for it was at that moment, Microsoft’s recent history of failure began. In 1999, Internet Explorer was the best browser in the world. Nowadays, many Windows users still rely on their outdated browser from 2001 because of the inconsistencies with Microsoft’s more recent releases.

And since 1999, not only has high-speed Internet access been trumped by mobile and wifi access, but Microsoft’s business model has been outmoded as well. Microsoft’s model of comprehensive and expensive software bundles has been replaced with simpler, cheaper and lightweight apps that address specific needs well, not all of them poorly.

Even in this, their 11th hour, the management at Microsoft still finds themselves on the wrong side of the marketplace. The simple fact that a significant percentage of Windows users still rely on a decade-old version of their browser should be proof enough that Microsoft’s best days are behind them.  Somehow, Microsoft failed to understand the power of the web. Their attempts at community development couldn’t match what Yahoo or AOL were able to offer. They tried numerous times to dominate the search market, but have always come up short. They allowed Blackberry to find and exploit the gaps in their mobile offerings, tapping into their core audience and stealing billions in revenue. Bill Gates predicted the iPhone would flop, and two years later, Steve Ballmer said the same of the iPad. Lessons NOT learned. These statements simply proved to the market how out of touch Microsoft had become. It’s funny how the smashing success of Apple’s devices has finally led Microsoft to change its stance, embracing web standards and the Cloud. Tragically, their first offering, the KIN phone, was a total disaster, and has been killed after barely two months on the market, while their interesting take on the tablet, the Courier, was shelved before even making it to market.

Indeed, if Microsoft were truly seeking to reinvent themselves in the Cloud, they’d build their new mobile platform on Android.  Thinking that Windows Mobile will be able to compete with the more open, app-based models already dominating the market is utterly foolish. The poor UX Microsoft has given us over the years, combined with their recent failures, gives us little reason to think all the problems users faced on a Windows desktop won’t be transported to their mobile platform. Personally, it’s my belief that this poor UX is the reason most people don’t know how to use their computers, and are afraid to learn. Users (who actually know how to use their machines) have grown even more savvy, and are demanding more openness and flexibilty than Microsoft can provide. The departure of these savvy users will slowly relegate Microsoft to AOL-like status – with a widely used yet rapidly shrinking community, populated by total n00bs. As impossible as it once would have sounded, it’s now hard to imagine Microsoft being relevant in 2020.

With the launch of the iPhone 4 and iOS, Apple has clearly positioned itself atop the mobile computing food chain. If rumors that Verizon will begin providing service in 2011 are true, the number of iPhones sold could skyrocket even further. The market cap for Apple will likely soar to levels only Microsoft have ever hit.  With all these billions at stake, and Microsoft in its death throes, someone had to inherit the crown. 

And while they earned their reputation as the little guy in the PC market, it’s the mobile computing revolution, combined with their tightening control that has led them to the pinnacle of the market.  Their devices, their OS’s, their marketplace, and most importantly, their ability to create tremendous marketing buzz have catapulted Apple to new heights, though not without some controversy. As I mention in an earlier article, “Little Brother, All Grown Up.”, Apple’s growing amount of control is beginning to change the market’s perception of them, and aligning their business practices closer to those of their long-time rivals up the coast. Forcing developers to use their API, while limiting access to other technologies provides a highly manicured, ‘walled-garden’ experience of the Internet. While there are many benefits to this approach, it does move Apple dangerously close to AOL territory, and seems to hint at Apple’s eventual movement towards the path Microsoft is currently stumbling down… the path Yahoo and AOL blazed.

Despite these frightening predictions, so long as Apple continues to provide the best hardware, software, and UX, they will continue to lead the market. Google has begun to compete, but with a half-baked OS and hand-held devices that don’t quite match up with the iPhone, they’ve yet to catch the kids from Cupertino.

Google: Power to the People

Google began with an open and democratic view of search on the web, and quickly thereafter, found a way to monetize it with Google Adwords.  Largely due to their philosophy and simplicity, Google became an industry beacon for innovation and open development on the web. Appealing the developers was the first brilliant step in Google’s ascension, and showed a deep understanding of the marketplace. By recognizing the areas where Microsoft was lagging – primarily with Mobile and The Cloud – has positioned them as the heir apparent to Microsoft. The release of the Android platform, though still not fully matured, and the continued work on developing a complete OS would seem to sound the death rattle for the Gates Empire. Many manufacturers has seen this shift, and begun shipping their mobile devices with Google’s OS installed, and in contract talks to ship their desk and laptops with ChromeOS in the fall.  Come Christmas, Google will finally be of age, and ready to fight for the title.

While Google has a formidable rival in Apple, they find their reason for existence, search, being threatened by the new kids on the block.  Facebook has matured faster than most people realized, as evidenced by the release of their Cross-Domain technology and, of course, infringing on its user’s privacy.  While the full potential of this technology hasn’t been unleashed just yet, Facebook is positioned to place a pivotal role in the development of the web, and the operating systems that get us there. Indeed, seems we’ve yet to understand The Marvelous Power of the “Like” Button.

Click here to continue reading part 2 of “The Changing Landscape of the Internet: The Marvelous Power of the “Like” Button.”